Nostradamus has been famous for “predicting” future events and, depending on how they were interpreted, his prophecies have been surprisingly accurate. The problem, however, is that all of his predictions were vague and ambiguous. The prophecies were never clear and time frames weren’t definitively set, which makes it open to all for interpretation. Add to that the fact that he has far more misses than hits (much like Bible interpretations and prophecies) and you essentially have nothing beyond the mathematical probability of outcomes. If I made thousands of predictions, very loosely written and vague, it’s almost a guarantee that a handful of them would come to pass.
Enter Gerald Celente, the hokey Nostradamus of our day. Celente also makes “predictions” and has foreseen doom in the near future. What’s the latest word from the modern-day prophet? America is doomed and nothing can be done about it. Over the course of the next four years, we will no longer be an industrialized nation, we’ll be scouring for food, there will be rebellions and riots, and all hell will break loose – to say the least. Wow, what a bold statement in hopes that everyone will forget within the next four years. That’s the beauty of prediction these days. You make them long enough that people will forget if they don’t come to pass, but if for some reason the prophecies come to fruition, you dig up your documented predictions and smugly say, “I told you so.”
Apparently, Celente has “accurately predicted” the fall of the USSR, the market crash in 1987, and the Asian currency crisis in 1997. How does he do it? Does he study social, market, and economic trends? Does he gather this data and use mathematical modeling and forecasting to come to reasonable possibilities? Does Celente allow for error and come up with figures to back his doomsayer predictions? Nay, Celente doesn’t subscribe to reason and uses the following method:
According to Gerald Celente, Director of the Trends Research Institute and author of Trends 2000, the key to tracking trends is to read two newspapers every day with a purpose — either The Wall Street Journal or The Financial Times, plus The New York Times or USA Today. Look for stories with social, economic, and political significance, be it about the difficulties older suburbs face or the current currency crisis. (You’ll know by the headline or the first paragraph.) Skip the stories that are purely human interest or that are about something that hasn’t happened yet (for example, a jury resuming deliberation on a sensational trial).
When a crisis does occur, tune in to the extra in-depth analyses that you’ll find in accompanying background pieces probably in more than one of the newspapers. Read them as though you’re a “political atheist,” Celente recommends — not for what you want or hope, but for what is really going on, not only in your own profession or industry, but for trends that may directly or indirectly shape the future.
There you have it – and how convenient and simple! All you have to do is read two newspapers everyday, make sure to read between the lines, and then make an objective conclusion about what should happen next, not what you hope to happen. In all seriousness, if there is a such a thing, who would listen to such a dope? One fine example is this painfully long blurb from Alex Jones’ Infowars. Doing a little research shows that, along with Alex Jones, all the Bible-thumping, hell-and-brimstone fanatics hail Celente as their prophet and take his predictions, which have a predilection for gloom and depression, very seriously.
Anyone who listens to a forecaster who is very specific, extremely positive or negative, and has nothing to substantiate his or her claims would do well to be skeptical. Don’t get me wrong – there are plenty of companies out there who study trends and make predictions, but it’s what they do for a living. These types of forecasters actually have several working models to come to the conclusions that they do, and even then they openly state the room for error and inaccuracy. Be wary of anyone who is firm and definitive, they’ll end up looking like an ass in the end.
November 30, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Predictions and Prophecies: A guaranteed way to make an ass of ……
Tagged: Alex Jones, Bible, conservatives, Gerald Celente, neoconservatives, Nostradamus, paleoconservatives, predictions, prophecies, skeptic, skepticism. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. ……
December 4, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Yep, I can’t comment on Celente per se, but there are thousands of such “gurus” to be wary of. Foresight is important, but who’s to say who has it? To cut a long story short I wrote a book – Future Savvy, Amacom Press, NY – to help ordinary people figure out a good forecast from a bad one and assert some quality control in the arena of predictions.
This is the blurb:
“There’s no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. Forecasts are important for navigating future success, but they are also of very mixed quality. What information from the endless sea of sources is valid? How do you know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy shows readers how to discern quality in forecasting and business future thinking. It views the predictive discourse as a crucial resource, but it puts sharp tools in the hands of forecast readers and users.”
see also http://tinyurl.com/5mdu2c
thanks for interesting blog,
Adam
December 4, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Thanks for your response and for sharing your work, Adam. It’s good to see a company like yours working to help those who are skeptical and want more reasonable forecasting assessments.
January 5, 2009 at 7:01 pm
who are the forecasters that we should pay attention to? I have followed people such as celente and put money in the right places, so for now I’m going with them.
April 26, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Why did you just waste a couple minutes of my life reading this drivel? It’s all just personal attacks, and no substance. Is this really how you think? Are you really this illogical?
April 27, 2009 at 1:13 am
Are you fucking retarded? It’s not all personal attacks. I quoted Celente’s stupid predictions and stated why he’s wrong. I’ve pointed out the asinine predictions which, taken on their own, shine with stupidity. Do you have a problem with logic and probability? That if you made a thousand predictions and one came true, you’re suddenly a forecasting god? Go blow yourself.